/ Modified sep 23, 2015 8:48 a.m.

Poll Contradiction: McSally Leads; Voters Want Democrat

Survey done for National Republican Congressional Committee gives her 7-point lead, but ...

An early public opinion poll in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District shows seemingly contradictory information.

McSally 2014 portrait U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz.

The poll done last week gave Republican U.S. Rep. Martha McSally leads of seven points over Democrat Victoria Steele and eight points over Democrat Matt Heinz.

It also showed that 45 percent of likely voters in the Southeastern Arizona district favor a Democrat in the seat, while 42 percent favor a Republican. That response came on a question that did not name any candidates, but instead what was called a "generic congressional ballot."

Steele, a state representative from Tucson, and Heinz, a former state representative from Tucson, have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination to challenge McSally.

McSally had a 58 percent approval rating in the poll, and 29 percent disapproval.

The poll was conducted by Harper Polling among 484 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.44 percent, meaning the results could vary one way or another by that margin.

The district's registered voters are split three ways in the latest tally: 33.8 percent are Republicans, 33.7 percent are independents, and 32.5 percent are Democrats.

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