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In political campaigns, candidates often don’t mention their opponents by name. It's an attempt to slow down name recognition in the other camp.
In the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona that is not the case.
“John McCain has 100 percent name ID,” said Arizona State University pollster Bruce Merrill.
It will be a challenge for the pool of opposing candidates that now includes U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who announced her candidacy Tuesday for McCain's U.S. Senate seat.
Kirkpatrick does have a certain level of name recognition of her own. Congressional District 1, which she has represented for two terms, stretches from Pima County to the Utah border. It also skirts the eastern edge of the Metro Phoenix area.
“She’s effectively been running statewide in the district,” said Democratic strategist Andy Barr. “She had to run in the Phoenix media market, the Tucson media market and Flagstaff along with the Navajo Nation and a lot of other tribes. I mean the only part of the state her district doesn’t touch is Yuma."
The campaign for U.S. Senate will see no shortage of money. Last year, the national Republican Party pumped millions of dollars into the CD 1 campaign to attempt to outst Kirkpatrick. There is no reason to expect that will not be the case in her Senate campaign.
“Certainly Ann Kirkpatrick has shown a fundraising prowess, but John McCain is no slouch either,” said Republican strategist Barrett Marson. “He can raise tens of millions of dollars, Kirkpatrick has shown that she can certainly raise millions of dollars and she is going to need to continue that."
Kirkpatrick’s latest campaign finance numbers for her congressional district show she raised more than $300,000 during the first three months of 2015. She has $295,000 in the bank. McCain raised $1.6 million during the first quarter of the year. He has $3.5 million in the bank.
Arizona’s political focus in 2016 may be the Senate race but nationally, the race for the White House will take center stage. The presidential open seat could help Kirkpatrick.
“Turnout could be much better in the presidential than it has been and that benefits the Democrats somewhat,” said Morrison Institute political scientist David Berman.
ASU pollster Merrill agreed, “In presidential years you get the minorities and younger people who come out stronger than off year elections, but McCain is very tough to beat.”
A poll released earlier this month by the Democratic leaning Public Policy Polling looked at the then theoretical match up between McCain and Kirkpatrick. Incumbent McCain led by six points.
Election Day is 18 months away.
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